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Political Economy of World-Systems 2002 Conference Riverside, California |
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Abstract Three Eyes on Hegemons Tieting Su This paper explores hegemonic structures and cycles in three time frames: the most recent structure, the structure and cycles of the modern world-system in the past century and the cycles of a historical system from 770 B.C.E. Using world trade networks as a systematic indicator of the hegemonic structure, this paper demonstrates that the current structure is multipolarized and dominated by hierarchical or proto-imperial relations contrary to the propoganda of free trade and globalization. Comparing the current world trade network with those in 1960, 1938 and 1928, this paper reveals two phases of a structural cycle. The current structure resembles closely the structure in 1938 whereas that in 1960 is close to that in 1928. From the perspective of the hegemonic sequence, the U.S. hegemony may yield its place to multipolarity or even chaos. But examined from an even longer perspective, the U.S. hegemony could also be morphed into an empire. This longer perspective is rooted in the Annual School and World-System School's insight that history is structure. Examining meticulously recorded major political and military events from 770 B.C.E. of a historical system of the North-Central-East Asian nexus (or subsystem of the larger Afro-Eurasian system), this paper further reveals that hegemonic cycles are congealed in Meso Cycles, which, in turn, are embedded in 400-to-600-year Major Cycles. |
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27th Annual Conference of the Political Economy of World-Systems Spring Hosted by the Institute for Research on World-Systems at the University of California, Riverside |