Pink Tide in Latin America Appendix

irows.ucr.edu/cd/appendices/pinktide/pinktideapp.htm 

Appendix to “Social Movements and Progressive Regimes in Latin America:

World Revolutions and Semiperipheral Development”

”

Christopher Chase-Dunn, Alessandro Morosin and Alexis Álvarez

Institute for Research on World-Systems, University of California-Riverside

Riverside, CA 92521-0419 USA

v. 1-17-14

Appendix Table of Contents

Excel data files showing coding of Latin American countries

Regime types and world-system position, 1959-2012: pinktide.xlsx

World-System Position of Latin American Countries

Table A1: Classification of Political Regime Types in Latin America

Figures from the paper

World-System Position of Latin American Countries

Country	World-system Position
Bolivia	Periphery
Dominican Republic	Periphery
Ecuador	Periphery	Anglophone
El Salvador	Periphery	Francophone
Guatemala	Periphery	Hispanophone
Haiti	Periphery	Lusophone
Honduras	Periphery
Jamaica	Periphery
Nicaragua	Periphery
Paraguay	Periphery
Perú	Periphery
Trinidad	Periphery
Argentina	Semiperiphery
Brazil	Semiperiphery
Chile	Semiperiphery
Colombia	Periphery
Costa Rica	Periphery
Cuba	Periphery
México	Semiperiphery
Panamá	Periphery
Uruguay	Semiperiphery
Venezuela	Semiperiphery

Table A1: Classification of Political Regime Types in Latin America – 0=conservative; 1=reformist; 2=antisystemic

Country	World-System Position	Nature of Regime			Recent Heads of Government Notes on regime composition: foreign policy, free trade, internal policies, relation to antisystemic movements
Argentina	Semip	1	2003-present	Kirchners - Nestor and Kristina. After Latin America’s greatest peacetime slump and social movements drive out three presidents in a week, Social Democrats assume power. Partial commitment toward narrowing inequality and seeking justice for victims of “Dirty War” (1976-83). “Superorthodox” neoliberalism replaced by greater role for state, but not wholesale rejection of Washington Consensus. Since 2001 recovery, reliance on export-based economic growth (Asian demand for environmentally detrimental, job-cutting soy and beef industries.)
Bolivia	Periphery	2	2006-present	Evo Morales, first indigenous president with roots in grassroots social movements. Strong convergence of ethnic nationalism and syndicalism: resistance to Washington-backed war on coca and attempted privatization of water by transnationals. New contracts with foreign companies in gas fields provides fiscal surplus and new maneuvering room from IMF. Bolivia a member of ALBA. Main trading partners: Brazil and Argentina.
Brazil	Semip	1	2003-present	Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, 2003, 2007; After brutal military rule (1964-85), Workers Party (PT) reaches out to center and becomes legitimate electoral force. Lula and other “pragmatic left” presidents (e.g. Argentina, Chile) keep inflation low and respect IMF so as to avoid capital flight and run on currency. Striving to increase trade and foreign exchange to pay for imports leads to alliances with transnational business and deep integration with global capital markets. “Participatory local governance” at the urban level: PT raises social/health outcomes since assuming municipal power in 2001, hosts World Social Forum. Lula’s 45 percent budget cuts in 2003 leads to “loss of credibility shock” among many progressives and PT supporters. Lula re-elected in 2006 due to some rise in living standards (e.g. Bolsa Familia program) amid neoliberal growth constraints. Forest protection plans thwarted by 2007 commodity boom: rising land prices encourage ethanol production, which ironically contributed to global food instability and hunger during global economic crisis (2008-). Dilma Rousseff 2011-present. Domestic inequality and police impunity still high. MST movement of landless farmers a leading force in Via Campesina, transnational movement of small farmers. Dependence on agribusiness exports maintains power of landed elite (beef, soy, sugar) and hinders agrarian and environmental reform. 2012: government removing indigenous peoples to begin construction on Belo Monte dam (third largest in world), whose hydroelectric power likely to serve mining industry.
Chile	Semip	1	1990- 2010	CIA-backed overthrow of Allende begins military rule (1973-90). Subsequent political culture generates market-oriented policies and proactive trade relations with U.S., Europe, Asia. “Política de acuerdos”: macroeconomic stability plus tax increases, social programs, wage increases. For social-democratic Concertacion government (1990-2010), poverty reduction was a depoliticized, technocratic project of economic modernization (unlike Venezuela’s and Bolivia’s “21^st Century Socialism”). Recent movements for greater income equality (copper miners, Santiago students) and cultural autonomy (Mapuche Indians) partly given voice to a renewed opposition. Sebastian Piñera: moderate neoliberal of Chilean center-right wins power in 2010. After earthquake and tsunami of February 2010, Piñera adopted developmental stance: state support for displaced victims, economy and infrastructure.
Colombia	Periphery	0		Most right-wing, pro-U.S. regime in Latin America. U.S.-Colombia petro-military relationship a bulwark of WC against Pink Tide and other challenges. “Old left” FARC guerilla movement attempted to become “New left” and re-enter electoral politics in 1985 via Unión Patriótica party, but 3,000 UP leaders assassinated by paramilitaries. Armed conflict resumed, continues today. Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus was runner-up in 2010 presidential race. President Juan Manuel Santos maintains complicity with human rights abuses and extractive capital, with some new rhetoric about inequality (likely for international consumption, as neoliberal paradigm becomes increasingly isolated). Since 2012, government agrees to negotiate with FARC.
Costa Rica	Periphery	0		Laura Chinchilla of Partido Liberación Nacional assumed office May 2010. Though members of Socialist International, pro-free trade and socially conservative.
Cuba	Periphery	2	1959-present	Fidel Castro and Cuban Communist Party
Dominican Republic	Periphery	0
Ecuador	Periphery	2	2003-present	Gutierrez, Palacio; now Correa. Multiple presidents impeached or driven out for authoritarianism. Correa srong critic of neoliberal economics and politically/diplomatically close to Chavez, Morales.. , though he has taken positions in support of oil companies that has put him in sharp conflict with indigenous groups.
El Salvador	Periphery	1	2009-present	Funes, FMLN. Some Moderate reformist economic policies. FMLN continues enacting successors’ policies that continue major attacks on the right to abortion. President Funes has refused to make El Salvador member of ALBA. With 18% of GDP coming from remittances from U.S.-based emigrants, Funes government unwilling to challenge U.S. hegemony. Upon his election, U.S. State Dept and Obama administration dissuade Funes from re-opening relations with Cuba and joining ALBA. FMLN continues to support FUNES. Regional projects attempt greater structural reform than central government will pursue, e.g. 20 towns with FMLN mayors collaborate with Venezuelan state oil company to build Schafik Hándal fuel storage plant in Acajutla in May 2011. Largest in Central America.
Guatemala	Periphery	0		Colom won the presidential elections of 07 as center-left politician, replacing free tradists. He seemed to be advocating indigenous rights. But not very convincing regarding anti-neoliberalism.
Haiti	Periphery	1	1996-2004	Aristide (broke from OPL and founded Fanmi Lavalas) was opposed to the W.C., but was ousted by a military coup in 2004.  Lavalas not allowed to run in 2011 elections. Michel Martelly wins election, closely connected with coup plotters and supportive of further opening Haiti to capital. Most Haitians abstained from voting. Opposition continues protests.
Honduras	Periphery	1	2007-2009	Zelaya elected in 2005. Turned to left in 2007.  Coup ousts him in 2009 with U.S. diplomatic backing.
Jamaica	Periphery	1	2012	President Portia Simpson-Miller (PNP) supportive of LGBT civil unions. Favors, public-private parternships, tourism and IMF agreements. Austere budget makes more cuts, benefiting international creditors. Simpson Miller has social democratic philosophy that development is not an end in itself but allied with IMF/WC to get country out of deep debt.
Mexico	Semip	0		Felipe Calderón (PAN) in 2006. Fraud against center-left Lopez Obrador widely acknowledged. Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) Presidency in 2012 with U.S. backing amidst voting irregularities. “Drug war”, agrarian issues, indigenous sovereignty, miners, electrical workers, reproductive rights the site of “old” and “new” social movements. Zapatistas still have strong presence in Chiapas. U.S. support for militarization, global capitalist support for oil company privatization major bulwarks against progressive change. Regional challenges to neoliberalism: newly sworn-in mayor of Mexico City and his predecessor credited with taking city in more progressive direction: safety, legalized abortions, environmental rhetoric.
Nicaragua	Periphery	2-1	1979-1990; 2007-present	Sandinistas in power from 1979 to 1990 (antisystemic regime). (2) Daniel Ortega elected in 2007 and 2011 (reformist regime) (1) Working to enhance labor rights and social equality domestically, but progress remains uneven. Member of ALBA but aintained ties to IMF: advocates redistribution within free market framework. Looked to Venezuela, Iran and Libya for foreign assistance. Increased foreign reserves, national growth and bank deposits. Maintained ban on abortion. Aside from the CPCs [Councils of Citizen Power], no dramatic moves to restructure state (Lievesley & Dudlam 2008).
Panama	Periphery	0		Ricardo Martinelli 2009
Paraguay	Periphery	1	2009-2012	Fernando Lugo of “Popular Alliance for Change” identified with liberation theology, but impeached in 2012.
Trinidad and Tobago	Periphery	0
Peru	Periphery	1	2012	Ollanta Humala promised social justice. He seemed to have come to power as a fellow traveler of the Pink Tide. Early in term (summer 2012), there were large crackdowns, arrests and alleged torture of indigenous and environmentalist mine protestors. This regime may well become a 0 once again, highlighting the deep division among resource-extractive Andean states between the neoliberal and the antisystemic bloc.
Uruguay	Semip	1	2005-present	Tabaré Vázquez (2005-2010); José Mujica (since 2010)
Venezuela	Semip	2	1999-present	Hugo Chavez (1999-2013). First Pink Tide regime. Lead role in formation of ALBA (counter-hegemonic bloc of Latin American states). Some re-distribution of wealth and power within country while facing strong elite opposition and coup attempts. Dependence on oil export retains distorting influence over economy and ecology. Government attempts to diversify oil exports to other states besides U.S., but no significant motion towards diversifying economy as a whole, or moving away from destructive oil extraction.

Figure 1: Waves of Colonization and Decolonization Since 1400- Number of European colonies established and number of decolonizations (Source: Henige, 1970)

Figure 2: Number of regime transitions to reformist or antisystemic by year, weighted by the number of countries in the two world-system zones.